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End of Round 2

Ding-ding!

Some scorecards give the slight edge to Kerry, some to Bush, but most everyone calls this debate a draw.

As in the first debate, there were no knockout punches, and neither candidate shot themselves in the foot as Bush did last week with his dispeptic reactions. Clearly, Bush's improved performance will be key to reassuring his base, but this debate could only have helped Kerry.

While a "win on points" is important to the campaigns, they only really care about a political win, which means winning over the undecided voters. Kerry's critique of the President's foreign and economic policies have been devastating to the President's chances among these voters. Kerry has the momentum and this debate has done nothing to stop it.

But. But, the third debate is coming up. Most pundits believe this debate on domestic issues is the Democrats' home turf. This also means it is Kerry's debate to lose. You may have noticed a subtle shift in Bush's tactics last night from attacking Kerry as a flip-flopper to a focus on his liberal Senate voting record. I think it was CNN's Jeff Greenfield who pointed out last night that the third debate's focus on domestic issues is not just a debate on economic policy, it is also a a debate on social issues. This may be Kerry's achille's heel.

The Republican campaign will now attempt to portray Kerry as an über-liberal. Last night, you saw Kerry shore up his defense by scoffing at this as name-calling. Near the end of the debate, Kerry delivered a clear explanation for his vote on the infamous $87 billion Iraq funding bill. He also offered clear explanations for his votes on partial birth abortion and parental consent bill. Immediately, Bush responding by hammering on the votes as if he and the audience hadn't even heard Kerry's explanations. Here's the exchange from the transcript:

GIBSON: Senator, do you want to follow up? Thirty seconds.

KERRY: Well, again, the president just said, categorically, my opponent is against this, my opponent is against that. You know, it's just not that simple. No, I'm not.

I'm against the partial-birth abortion, but you've got to have an exception for the life of the mother and the health of the mother under the strictest test of bodily injury to the mother.

Secondly, with respect to parental notification, I'm not going to require a 16-or 17-year-old kid who's been raped by her father and who's pregnant to have to notify her father. So you got to have a judicial intervention. And because they didn't have a judicial intervention where she could go somewhere and get help, I voted against it. It's never quite as simple as the president wants you to believe.

GIBSON: And 30 seconds, Mr. President.

BUSH: Well, it's pretty simple when they say: Are you for a ban on partial birth abortion? Yes or no?

And he was given a chance to vote, and he voted no. And that's just the way it is. That's a vote. It came right up. It's clear for everybody to see. And as I said: You can run but you can't hide the reality.

Kerry has successfully deflected the flip-flopper charge by turning the issue around to portray the President as someone who us unable to change his mind in the face of mounting evidence. His next challenge is to deflect Republican attempts to paint him as a latté-sipping, baby-killing, tax-and-spend New England liberal.

POSTSCRIPT:
Something I just noticed on CSPAN's replay: strips of tape on the floor created a faint boundary dividing the stage in half, which apparently the candidates were not allowed to cross. Given the contentiousness of the debate, this may have been the only thing keeping the two candidates from coming to blows.