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End of Round 1

Ding-ding!

Here are the judges' scorecards:

Bush supporters: a narrow Bush win. Bush stuck to his script and made some points that went unrefuted, but there was no knockout blow. Kerry's still standing.

Kerry supporters: a solid Kerry win. The President looked flustered and angry and was clearly on the defensive on several issues.

The press: a Kerry win. He spoke in sentences, not paragraphs, and looked presidental. Meanwhile, Bush was clearly uncomfortable and confounded by many of Kerry's charges.

Political experts posing as debate judges: a draw. Both sides made points that went unanswered. Both sides missed opportunities to attack false claims and inaccuracies.

Undecided voters: edge to Kerry. Finally, he presented a clear distinction between himself and the President. Finally, one can begin to see where he stands on the issues. Whether or not he can maintain this image remains to be seen.

Bottom line: a crucial Kerry win. The press will begin shifting its discussion to Kerry's advantage. Both bases were solidified, but neither candidate really cares about their base at this point. The audience that really maters, the swing voters, finally got to see a strong, unwavering Kerry to contrast against a defensive, dispeptic President. Everyone expected Kerry to blather on, but he didn't. Everyone expected the President to exude his famous good ol' boy charm, but he didn't. The Bush camp was hoping to put the race out of reach, but it will only get tighter.

In 2000, Gore "won" the debates only to see his momentum evaprorate within days. I don't know that this situation really compares to what we had in 2000; there is a lot more at stake and the voting public is much more polarized and entrenched. For the next debate, expectations for Kerry will be much higher as the President will attempt to take the offensive. We'll see how long the Kerry momentum holds up.